Early voting data and polling suggest Democrats have real momentum heading into the midterms, with Texas emerging as an unexpected battleground.

• Polling averages show several Senate races as toss-ups, including Texas, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, all within the margin of error.
• Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, but polling now shows the Democratic candidate slightly ahead of incumbent Ken Paxton.
• Republican attack ads in Texas have leaned heavily on culture-war messaging (immigration, trans issues) rather than economic issues like gas and grocery prices, drawing mockery from young voters.
• Democrats have expanded their advantage in House race projections, partly due to Republican infighting and weak top-of-ticket candidates in states like North Carolina and Ohio.
• Rising gas prices and economic frustration are cited as a drag on Republican candidates, with Trump reportedly seeking help from Russia to ease oil prices.

Outlook: With races this close and early voting underway, turnout will likely decide control of the Senate and House, and both parties are treating the final days as critical.