Stocks Have Done This After Every Midterm Election Since 1950

Oct 23, 2026

History says the stock market tends to climb strongly in the year after a midterm election, which is good news for investors right now.

  • Since 1950, stocks have risen on average about 9.7% in a typical year, but in the 12 months following a midterm election, the average jump is much bigger, around 15%.
  • Looking back at every midterm election since 1950, stocks were higher a year later every single time.
  • These numbers don't include dividends, so real returns were likely even better.
  • Averages hide big swings — some years barely moved while others saw huge rallies, so this isn't a guaranteed outcome, just a strong historical pattern.

Outlook: If history repeats, the next 12 months could be a strong stretch for stocks, though no single year is guaranteed to follow the average.

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