Stocks Have Done This After Every Midterm Election Since 1950
History says the stock market tends to climb strongly in the year after a midterm election, which is good news for investors right now.
- Since 1950, stocks have risen on average about 9.7% in a typical year, but in the 12 months following a midterm election, the average jump is much bigger, around 15%.
- Looking back at every midterm election since 1950, stocks were higher a year later every single time.
- These numbers don't include dividends, so real returns were likely even better.
- Averages hide big swings — some years barely moved while others saw huge rallies, so this isn't a guaranteed outcome, just a strong historical pattern.
Outlook: If history repeats, the next 12 months could be a strong stretch for stocks, though no single year is guaranteed to follow the average.