A University of Chicago political scientist warns Trump faces growing pressure to escalate the Iran conflict after expected midterm losses, with the economy and his administration both at risk.

• Polls point to a Republican wipeout in the upcoming midterms, and that defeat removes Trump's political incentive to avoid a bigger strike on Iran — after election day he has "little to lose," making escalation more likely, not less.
• A new "three-day" Iran air strike plan being prepared for after the elections is being compared to the opening days of the 1991 Gulf War, built on eight months of intelligence-gathering on Iranian military command targets.
• Despite the sales pitch of a short campaign, the likely outcome is a prolonged conflict that further damages the economy, possibly through next spring — similar to how 1991's "short" plan dragged on for over a month.
• Israel's Netanyahu, also facing a tough election, reportedly held off on a strike in October, with coordinated planning now pointing to renewed action after both the Israeli and U.S. elections.
• If Democrats win big in the midterms, expect the administration to unravel further starting in January — with cabinet resignations, investigations, and comparisons being drawn to the collapse of the Nixon and Johnson presidencies.

Outlook: The risk of a major escalation in Iran is expected to keep rising through January, with the heaviest economic and political fallout likely in the weeks after the midterms rather than before.