A pollster who has correctly called past elections says Republicans are heading into a brutal midterm wipeout, driven by an unpopular war and a collapsing coalition.

• Generic polling shows Democrats with a historically large lead, the kind not seen since the Watergate era, putting even deep-red states like Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas in play.
• The damage traces to two self-inflicted wounds: how the administration handled the Epstein files and the Iran war, which broke a promise Trump made for over a decade and angered younger voters, women, and Hispanic voters who had only recently joined his coalition.
• Republicans redistricted using Trump's 2024 vote totals as a baseline, but pollster says that was a mistake since many of those voters are not reliably Republican, leaving swing-friendly maps more exposed than they appear.
• Early voting data in North Carolina and Virginia shows massive swings against Republicans, suggesting similar shifts are likely nationwide, not just in those two states.
• Historically, polls have only undercounted Republicans when Trump himself was on the ballot and popular; neither is true this cycle, so the risk this time is that polls are underestimating Democrats, not Republicans.

Outlook: Expect Democrats to retake the House comfortably and the Senate to be a true toss-up, with Republican losses potentially running deeper than current polling already suggests.