Taiwan hosted a sea lane security conference where officials from Japan, South Korea and other First Island Chain countries warned that China's pressure on Taiwan's shipping routes would hurt the whole region, not just Taiwan.

• Taiwan depends on shipping for food, fuel and trade, so any disruption at sea quickly becomes a problem for ordinary people.
• A Chinese "quarantine" of Taiwan would work like a blockade, but China would call it an internal matter — making it very hard for the US, Japan or the Philippines to send help.
• South Korea felt the damage last time: China's drills around Taiwan in 2022 disrupted Korean imports and exports.
• Taiwan's stored gas supply is thin, and a fuel shortage can tip a society into chaos within two days — as happened during a UK fuel strike 20 years ago.
• Countries agreed to share more maritime intelligence, improve awareness of what is happening at sea, and train together.

Outlook: Expect more joint monitoring and intelligence sharing among First Island Chain countries as China keeps testing the line below outright war.