Taiwan's 2028 presidential race is already taking shape around Han Kuo-yu, a boost for the KMT's opposition wing and a growing headache for President Lai Ching-te.

• Han, as legislative speaker, used the National Day stage to accuse Lai of running a "fake democracy, real dictatorship" — the sharpest attack yet on the cabinet's refusal to countersign laws passed by the legislature.
• Commentator Huang Wei-han rates Han the most likely KMT nominee for 2028, because the speaker's post is the only perch in the opposition that puts him on equal footing with the president, with two more such speeches to come next year.
• Han also stands apart inside his own party: friendlier to Washington and more willing to talk about Taiwan's own identity than the KMT leadership, and he calls the mainland "China."
• The cabinet is holding its line, defending the non-countersigning as a constitutional duty while offering to talk with the legislature.
• With 46 days to the local elections, the Taipei mayor race is stuck in a fight over debate dates, and a new New Taipei poll puts the DPP's Su Chiao-hui 13 points ahead of the KMT's Lee Si-chuan.

Outlook: Expect the Lai–Han clash to keep escalating through the local elections, which will set the early benchmark for 2028.