Bitcoin's long-term picture just turned bullish, but a sharp drop back toward the 78,000 area looks likely first — good for patient buyers, dangerous for anyone using heavy leverage.

• Bitcoin pushed above its weekly moving-average ribbon, the first big sign the bear market is flipping to a bull market.
• Every past breakout like this was followed by a drop back to the top of that ribbon, now near 78,000.
• The timing is unknown — it could come this week or months from now — but the pullback itself is treated as close to certain.
• The later it happens, the higher the retest level, since those trend lines keep rising.
• Leveraged altcoin bets are the real risk: an XRP long would get wiped out on a 5–10% Bitcoin dip, while Bitcoin and Ethereum positions should survive.

Outlook: The trend points higher, but expect a correction back toward the high-70s before the next leg up.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bullish long term, with a near-term correction expected.
• **Buy / accumulate:** The 78,000–80,000 retest zone (top of the weekly EMA ribbon).
• **Support:** 78,000–80,000; rising over time as the ribbon tilts up.
• **Targets:** Downside retest at 78,000–79,000–80,000 depending on when the pullback hits.
• **Invalidation:** A weekly close back below the EMA ribbon would cancel the bull-market flip.