AI leaders pushing for government rules is less about safety than about locking out competitors — bad news for startups, good news for the biggest players.

• AI companies have no real moat because anyone can copy a model and build it cheaper.
• Licenses, compliance departments, and minimum capital rules would price small rivals out of the market.
• Safety rules also give the big players legal cover if their products cause harm.
• It echoes what banks did after 2008 — write the rules, then hide behind them.
• The same pattern is playing out elsewhere: banks getting control of payment systems, defense firms getting a guaranteed government customer.

Outlook: Expect more AI safety legislation that ends up protecting the current leaders rather than the public.