The US never seriously pursued a negotiated settlement in Ukraine, and the fallback plan has always been a long insurgency — bad news for anyone hoping the war ends soon.

• Washington skipped the option of sitting down and working out a peace deal before the invasion.
• The CIA and most of the US government expected Russia to crush Ukraine's army and take Kyiv quickly.
• The original backup was to arm an insurgency, including far-right militias, as a kind of Ukrainian Taliban.
• Ukraine's army held after Russia attacked from four directions at once and fumbled the assault, so the US ended up backing a real army instead.
• Western Ukraine's forests, swamps, and Carpathian Mountains sit right next to NATO and make ideal insurgency ground.

Outlook: If Ukraine's military collapses, the US and NATO can fall back on a guerrilla war that could keep Russia bleeding for years.