Bitcoin has climbed back above a long-term trend line it lost nearly a year ago, a bullish signal for buyers based on how past reclaims played out.

• Bitcoin closed back above its 200-day moving average for the first time in 312 days.
• Every past reclaim of this line was followed by gains 20 days later, averaging a little over 19%.
• A repeat of that move would put Bitcoin back near $104,000, close to six figures again.
• The edge fades the longer you hold — past 60 days, the odds of still being up drop off.

Outlook: The next few weeks are the window where this signal has historically paid off, with a move toward $104,000 the base case if history repeats.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bullish
• **Support:** The 200-day moving average, now reclaimed, is the line to hold
• **Targets:** ~$104,000 within 20 days (19% above the reclaim close)
• **Invalidation:** Losing the 200-day moving average again