The Russia-Ukraine war is heading toward a dangerous escalation, which is bad news for Europe, global oil markets, and anyone hoping for a near-term peace deal.

• Ukraine just launched its largest attack of the war, with 1,000 drones fired at Russia including hundreds aimed at Moscow.
• Western intelligence says Putin plans a quiet, unannounced expansion of conscription right after Russia's regional elections, to avoid public backlash.
• Russia is running low on soldiers: Western estimates put its casualties at 1.5 million, with 500,000 dead, and recruiters are now forcing prisoners, debtors, and students into uniform.
• Trump publicly called out Putin, saying Russia has lost control of its diesel industry after Ukrainian strikes on refineries and that 25,000 people are dying each month in a war that must end.
• Strikes on oil infrastructure hurt the whole world because fuel supply is already tight, and a cornered nuclear power adds a small but real risk of a tactical nuclear strike.

Outlook: Expect a large Russian retaliation soon, while Trump leans on Putin and meets with Zelensky and Xi in the coming days to push for a deal.