A debate on whether the West is heading for civil unrest lands on a grim shared conclusion: the economy, energy and now a war in the Middle East are all pushing the same way, and neither side sees a fix coming.

• Europe and Britain have barely grown since the 2008 crash, and that stagnation plus anger over illegal immigration is driving voters to the hard right in Germany, France, Italy and the UK.
• Young people locked out of housing and priced out of owning anything are turning to socialism in the US — a reaction to capitalism, not a plan.
• The Iran conflict is the bigger near-term shock: the Strait of Hormuz is choking off oil, gas and fertilizer, and Australian farmers have already planted half their usual wheat because fertilizer costs too much.
• A global food shortage is the feared next step, with the pain arriving whenever stockpiles run out — nobody knows how deep those are.
• Sanctions relief on Russian oil to fill the gap is helping Moscow fund its war, an unintended win for Putin.

Outlook: Iran can outwait Washington, so expect Trump to look for a face-saving deal before the midterms while food and energy prices keep climbing.